Blue Jays Fantasy Profile

Toronto Blue Jays

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As much as I love stats, I hate to really endorse a player unless I’ve watched him play. Most fantasy research involves stats, projections and some talking heads opinion. People will make bold statements about guys they rarely see play. One of the popular statements is that Jose Bautista cannot repeat his amazing 2010 season.

Maybe he can, may he can’t? No one really knows. In my opinion he is a major talent who just hit his stride. I can say that because I watched him play day after day. Does the average fantasy writer take in 100+ Jay games a year? How about 20? Not likely. Lucky for you I watch or listen to almost every game.

This is the place to come here for all of you Blue Jay fantasy advice. As a favor to the Professor Nation, I’m offering up my pre season thoughts on the 2011 Jays

The first thing I find odd about Blue Jay predictions is the lack of respect for the Jays offense. In 2010 they had the 4^th most HR in history. The following season was great as well., in 2009 they were 5^th in MLB with 209. The last two years they placed 4^th and 8^th respectively in OPS. Lets give credit where it’s due, this is one of the better offences in baseball.

Here’s my take on the projected starters for the 2011 season.

In brackets is their ADP courtesy of Mock Draft Central.

The first thing I find odd about Blue Jay predictions is the lack of respect for the Jays offense. In 2010 they had the 4^th most HR in history. The following season was great as well., in 2009 they were 5^th in MLB with 209. The last two years they placed 4^th and 8^th respectively in OPS. Lets give credit where it’s due, this is one of the better offences in baseball.

C-JP Arencibia (354)- don’t bother, not happening this year. He’s probably only catching about 110 games and since his great debut performance has not looked very good.

1B-Adam Lind- (173)- Hell yeah! This guy is a hitter. He’s got a great swing and still managed 23 HR’s last year despite having an awful year. He had .931 OPS in parts of 3 triple A season’s and a .931 in 2009. He’s a great value for the 173^rd pick.

2B-Aaron Hill (168) -This guy is starting to worry me I like him except that his health is becoming a big factor. He’s a solid hitter but injuries and inconsistency are the big issues. If you have to grab him, have a plan B.

SS-Yunel Escobar (378)- He’s a career .289 hitter batting in the 2 hole in a good line up. If I missed out on the first three SS, id be comfortable skipping all the rest to snap him up really late. He’s going to play everyday and will produce nice counting stats at a thin position. His 2009 season is a good indicator of what he’s capable off.

3B/OF Bautista (48)- I love him, he was my sleeper before last season. If he falls to the late 3^rd/early 4^th he’s a steal. He plays with a swagger, he’s slowly starting to own this town and has the make up of a MVP player. Can he repeat? Who really knows? I can understand the skepticism but I’ve personally watched him play almost 300 games. I’ve witnessed the talent and I’m a believer. Watch this montage and ask yourself how many HR were win driven, flukes or luck. Take note of the opposite field jack for #54, a sign of things to come?

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=12404949&topic_id=8877962&c_id=tor

The most popular refrain on Bautista is that he will not hit 54 HR; but he could get 35.THIRTY-FIVE. That’s pretty good! You have to ignore the avg. when I guy has 100 BB’s. 35 HR hitting in the 3 slot of a potent line up equates to elevated run and RBI totals as well? Wouldn’t you love to get those numbers out of your third baseman? Isn’t 3b shallow this year? And what if 35 HR was the low end? And what if he does a David Ortiz impersonation and becomes a perennial MVP candidate? And why is he being taken 27 picks after Ryan Zimmerman?

I’m not advocating a 1^st or even 2^nd round pick on Bautista but if he slips in your draft, take a chance.

DH/3B/1B Encarnacion (363) late round flyer. He’s got power (21HR in 332AB) has multi position eligibility and is slated to play everyday. 30HR -90RBI is well within his reach I own him in a league already.

OF Rajai Davis- (281) -huge bargain. The Jays plan to run a lot this year. Davis has a secure spot at the top of line up and could put up career best numbers.

Juan Rivera (UD)- pass.

OF Travis Snider (293)- love him as well. He’s got major pop in the bat and will nab you a few steal as well. He got jerked around by Cito Gaston last year but looks ready to establish himself as a middle of the order hitter. In my draft full of Blue Jay fans some one will take him around 12/13^th round.

Prospects- Brett Lawrie. He’s smoking the ball and looks better than advertised. Should make the team but probably won’t. Start looking for him to be a call up in late May/early June

Morrow (127) Romero (141), Cecil (393)- Yes, yes and maybe. Morrow has a high ceiling and racks up the strikeouts. But I could see Morrow having a set back or two before he really breaks through. Romero is the smart pick. He’s strikeout numbers are trending up; he’s durable and looks to log over 200 IP again. I can see Morrow having a set back or two before he really breaks through. Cecil doesn’t have the strikeout numbers but he did lead the team in wins in 2010 and is a battler on the mound. If he were there in the last couple rounds I’d grab him.

Drabek (391)/Litsch (UD)-jury’s still out. Drabek has got great stuff but you have to expect some tough nights in the AL East. Litsch doesn’t have the pedigree but has proven to be a dependable guy. Both can be fill in starters at some point but I don’t think you need to draft either one.

Closers-I have no clue. It looks like Francisco is hurt; either way I could see three different guys getting saves this year. If you absolutely have to have one, then Rauch is your guy. He’s solid and I feel like he’ll eventually settle in as the closer.

There you have it, the annual state of the Jays address. I would love some feedback from other Jay fans to see if they share my sentiments.

A Fantasy Love Story

One of the most important draft day rules I have learned is to be aware of your host site rankings. Many of us will use ESPN or Yahoo as a fantasy league host. While its imperative to have your own rankings, the most important numbers to remember are the ones you’re going to stare at in the draft window. I’ve noticed that no matter how many different rankings you look at, the ones with the most pull are the ones beside a guys name when the draft window launches. Generally in the first two rounds, the highest ranked player available is taken and usually no one falls more than 3 or 4 picks. The gap increases as the rounds move on. Its important to have your own rankings and not be swayed by the chalk like most of your league will be. I conducted simultaneously mock drafts on the two big sites and noticed a few discrepancies.

One of the biggest was Carl Crawford. ESPN has ranked him No.3 with ADP of 4.2. Yahoo on the other hand has him ranked 12 with an ADP of 12.6. What this tells me is that most drafters are just towing the company line. He’s being taken before Longoria and Braun on ESPN but sometimes not till the 2^nd round on Yahoo. And the only discernable reason is that too many players wowed by the shiny little number beside his name.

Yahoo users picking late first round, take note. You may have no interest in Crawford but think about that ESPN no.3 ranking as the 1^st round moves on. Crawford is going to look pretty attractive at 10 and 11 and will look absolutely gorgeous at 2am, err in round 2 in yahoo formats.

I’m not saying Carl is the ugly girl at the end of the bar at last call, he’s a beauty wherever you get him, but keep in mind that in a leagues one cyber neighborhood away, people aren’t just picking him up early, they’re taking him to dinner. ESPN users need to very wary as he seems to be overrated while Yahoo blokes can sit back enjoy a few cocktails and grab him before the lights come on.

Speaking of cocktails, try to have a few. It’s a big day and there’s nothing wrong with celebrating. And if your state or country allows it, a little weed can sharpen your draft day focus. But know your limits. There’s a lot of Gonzalez’s and Ramirez’s out there it only takes a momentary lapse of concentration and you end up with Horacio instead of Hanley.

Here are some other notes and discrepancies I found while drafting:

Roy Halladay- rising in both formats and rarely falling out of the first round

Matt Holiday-ranked 14 ESPN/27 Yahoo

Dustin Pedroia-falling in both formats

Jimmy Rollins- going around 40 Yahoo and 60 ESPN

Jason Werth- mid 40’s ESPN/high 60’s Yahoo

Mike Stanton-ranked 69 ESPN/91 Yahoo

Pedro Alvarez—ESPN Rank 127/Yahoo Rank 95

Adam Lind-falling in both formats

Rankings aren’t an exact science. If Jason Werth is being taken 40^th in one league and 70^th in another, perhaps anything beyond 55 could be considered good value. Compile your own rankings and don’t be distracted by the draft window rankings.

Speaking of distractions, try to eliminate them. And by them I mean woman. Whether it’s your wife, girlfriend or mother, impress upon them how important it is that they don’t bother you. Taking the garbage out beforehand is a good idea. The last thing you need is nagging while you’re trying to shore up your rotation. I also like to keep a rolled up magazine close by in case one of them gets too close. Just remember how sacred fantasy is to men, don’t let the ladies in! They may feign some interest but don’t be sucked in, they’re only going to ruin it. A long time ago before Fantasy Baseball, men engaged in a different ritual; it was called James Bond. Ninety minutes of gold, packed with stunts, fighting and unapologetic sexual escapades with foreign woman. It was beautiful until someone broke rank and brought their wife. Today couples on date nights sit together and watch Bond movies and every time they do an angel loses a nut. Don’t let Fantasy go the way of 007; the draft board is for your eyes only.