early season notes

Early Season Notes

Guys I Love

Allen Craig (OF)-He continues to impress me. I saw him execute a perfect hit and run on Monday and pick up a SB. He had 2 more hits Tuesday and a SB on Wednesday. I don’t know where he plays when Holiday is back but he looks like a LaRussa guy to me. I think he’ll eventually force his way into into the line up. He played over 200 minor league games at 3B and the incumbent 3B David Freese hasn’t looked good. Keep an eye on Craig especially if he gets a start at 3B.

Neil Walker (2B/3B)- Is an interesting fantasy option. He looks great but doesn’t have high-end power or speed. His best single season totals in the minors were 16HR and 10. But he can be very valuable. When I carry an extra batter, I like to use guys like him in a utility role. If you carry a bench hitter he gives you a ton of flexibility. Plug him in at 2b/3b, the utility spot or leave him on the bench if you have better match ups. Pairing him with another player with multiple position eligibility (Zobrist, Youkilis, Sandoval etc.) can give you extreme flexibility. It gives you insurance against injury at several positions and lets you mix and match the line up to ensure you get your best possible hitter-pitcher match ups. Also he was the 11th overall pick in 2004 and could be ready to fulfill the promise. He’s definitely a guy I would target in a trade or pick up if you’ re lucky enough to get him off waivers.

Quick Hits

Imagine the stats Nelson Cruz could put up if he ever played a full season…2010 Elvis Andrus owners can’t be impressed to see him hit his 1^st HR so early…Likewise for ‘06,’07,’08,’09 and ‘10 owners of Howie Kendrick. Last year the shortest stretch of games in which Kendrick hit 3 HR’s was 8 games. He followed that up with 33 straight homerless games…Jose Bautista is going to walk a lot this year. Don’t forget he had 100 last year and already has 4 in his first 3 games… If Yunel Escobar remains healthy he’ll be a top 6 SS…Andrew McCutchen is fast, football player fast…Colby Rasmus hasn’t shown the power but has shown great plate discipline (5 BB, 2K)…The Angels look great-When Jared Weaver is pitching…Is there any team more unpredictable than the Chicago White Sox. The bullpen (Sale, Thornton), starters (Floyd, Jackson), and hitters (Rios, Quentin) all show flashes of brilliance followed by head scratching moments. Has any other team adopted the personality of their manager more then these guys. If you own a White Sox enjoy the ride but understand that there will be some low points…Craig Kimbrel looks like he could be one the next great closers...Drew Storen does not!

Final Thoughts

I don’t like what I see in Washington and it doesn’t look like they’ll have many productive fantasy players. Remember when Mike Morse was the hot waiver wire pick up?... It could be a long year unless they do something crazy; like call up Bryce Harper(C/OF). Don’t laugh. They weren’t shy with Strasburg. Even a July D.L. stint couldn’t stop them from ringing the ticket office register a couple more times, er, getting him more experience. Sometimes money talks and three months of Bryce Harper could sell a lot of tickets. He’d be an instant top 10 catcher if he maintains the eligibility. It’s a long shot he even gets called up before Sept. but it’ll be fun story to watch and could be a fantasy game changer.

Don't believe the hype

Don’t Believe the Hype

Now that all my drafts are completed I like to re read some player predications so I can get a realistic idea of what to expect from each of my guys. This is mainly done to pat myself on the back but it’s also important to know each player inside and out. One of the articles that I love and hate to read is the list of expected busts, sleepers and breakthrough guys. I love reading analysis of why a guy should progress or regress but lately I’m finding some of the columns to be redundant and unimaginative.

Predictions, opinions and hunches are important but baseball is a numbers game and frankly I need more just an opinion. One of the major sports publications recently posted their fantasy preview. What I expected was pages of information and research. What I got was a bunch of hearsay, speculation, conjecture and some other words I heard on Law and Order. I’d hate to call any writer lazy (I’m actually lying down as I write this) but at least back up your argument with facts. If I wanted half-baked predictions I’d call Miss Cleo. When it comes to fantasy advice I need to see some evidence.

Here are five players I’ve seen listed in the bust section that I disagree with:

Jared Weaver and Dan Haren

The argument against Weaver is “never take a guy after a career year”. Haren’s case is similar, he is coming off a career high in innings and he was pretty shaky at the start of 2010. Lets start with Weaver

Can you really predict that a 6’7 former first round pick with a great pedigree will breakdown? Isn’t he doing what he was projected to do since he was a teenager. Why get indifferent when a guy delivers on a lifetime of promise.

Lets see if you notice a pattern in these series of numbers

Stat A-123, 161,176,211,224

Stat B-105, 115,152,174,233

Stat A is his yearly IP total and B is his K’s

He’s managed to increase both for 5 consecutive seasons. Impressive stuff.

Then there’s Dan Haren and his career high 235 IP. That was the 6^th consecutive year he’s logged at least 216 IP and only had a 6-inning increase from 2009. Do you really expect his shoulder to notice the extra couple innings? In those 6 seasons, only once was his ERA over 4 and his xFIP has never been above 3.83

I also found this fact courtesy of the Talented Mr. Roto.

Dan Haren’s ERA with

Mike Napoli-4.20.

Jeff Mathis-2.25.

Guess which guy Mike Scoiscia just jettisoned.

And the defensive improvements don’t end there. You have 12 combined gold gloves in OF plus the new centerfielder that Tori Hunter calls the “fastest white guy” I’ve ever seen.

To suggest a fallback from either guy is simply just guessing, all the evidence points to continued success from both.

Roy Halladay

Same theory applies with Halladay. He’s coming off a career high in innings and could be due for a regression. I couldn’t disagree more. This guy thrives on the work and seems to be getting better. His numbers are sparkling.

How about at least 220 innings 5 straight years and 7 of the last 9?

(The only years he failed were the dead arm year in 2004 and the fluke broken leg in 2005 when he was on his way to another CY Young)

How about 34 CG in 4 years?

How about 5 straight years of raising his SO/9 rate?

How about leading the league in SO/BB ratio three straight years?

How about a perfect game and a no hitter in the same season?

How about a 0.42 ERA this spring?

How about being one of the surest things in baseball?

How about watching him pitch?

It’s clear that he’s the best pitcher in the game and a future Hall of Famer. Even with a regression, the man would still be an all star. Lets stop hating and enjoy his talents.

Jose Bautista

I haven’t hid the fact that I love this guy. Let me rundown a few more numbers and Ill move on.

2009-10 HR after Sept 7

2010-hit .439 in spring training followed by 54 HR

2011-currently hitting .396 this spring with 9 doubles and 1.162 OPS

The man is in a zone, don’t ignore it, it may not last forever but while it’s happening you want to be along for the ride.

Carl Crawford

This is what I know about Crawford. In 2009 he was off to a slow start. I made a deal for him and he busted out in a big way. He stole 24 bases in the next 27 games. He solidified my SB category before May was over. His 162 game averages are 100-14-78-54-.296. He’s only 29, is a fitness freak and is playing in possibly the best line up in baseball. Case close!

Will all these guys be fantasy gold? I doubt it; injuries and flukes happen but there are no way of predicting them. All the recent history suggests that all five guys are safe bets this year.

I suppose if I’m going to second guess other writers, its only fair that I put my neck on the line. Please hold your laughter, spit or applause till the end of the column.

Sleeper

Allen Craig-Cardinals. This is a stretch because he isn’t guaranteed a spot but as soon as Lance Berkman goes on his yearly retreat to the DL, Craig will get his opportunity. He’s a career .308 hitter in the minors with a .888 OPS and has been hitting the well this spring.

Breakthrough

David Murphy-Rangers. It looks like he’s going to get full time AB’s and could hit in the heart of the Rangers line up when/if injuries fall upon Hamilton and Cruz. In the last 50 games of the 2010 season he hit .331 with 7 HR and 8 SB. A 300-20-20 year is within reach.

Bust

Shin Soo Choo-Indians. Lets compare two sets of stats.

Player A- 81 runs-22-HR-90 RBI-22 SB ADP: 27.84

Player B- 88 runs-20 HR- 78 RBI- 24 SB ADP: 127.9

You probably guessed player A is Choo, player B is Bobby Abreu. Not a lot of difference between two guys being taken in the 3^rd and 11^th rounds respectively. I do hate to knock Choo, he’s a good player but he may be the only good player on his team. He may be due for a regression just based upon being pitched around. This could be an ugly year for the Indians and I hate owning guys on teams going nowhere.

Enjoy the free predications while you can, next year this could be costing you $1.49 a minute on the psychic fantasy network.

Blue Jays Fantasy Profile

Toronto Blue Jays

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As much as I love stats, I hate to really endorse a player unless I’ve watched him play. Most fantasy research involves stats, projections and some talking heads opinion. People will make bold statements about guys they rarely see play. One of the popular statements is that Jose Bautista cannot repeat his amazing 2010 season.

Maybe he can, may he can’t? No one really knows. In my opinion he is a major talent who just hit his stride. I can say that because I watched him play day after day. Does the average fantasy writer take in 100+ Jay games a year? How about 20? Not likely. Lucky for you I watch or listen to almost every game.

This is the place to come here for all of you Blue Jay fantasy advice. As a favor to the Professor Nation, I’m offering up my pre season thoughts on the 2011 Jays

The first thing I find odd about Blue Jay predictions is the lack of respect for the Jays offense. In 2010 they had the 4^th most HR in history. The following season was great as well., in 2009 they were 5^th in MLB with 209. The last two years they placed 4^th and 8^th respectively in OPS. Lets give credit where it’s due, this is one of the better offences in baseball.

Here’s my take on the projected starters for the 2011 season.

In brackets is their ADP courtesy of Mock Draft Central.

The first thing I find odd about Blue Jay predictions is the lack of respect for the Jays offense. In 2010 they had the 4^th most HR in history. The following season was great as well., in 2009 they were 5^th in MLB with 209. The last two years they placed 4^th and 8^th respectively in OPS. Lets give credit where it’s due, this is one of the better offences in baseball.

C-JP Arencibia (354)- don’t bother, not happening this year. He’s probably only catching about 110 games and since his great debut performance has not looked very good.

1B-Adam Lind- (173)- Hell yeah! This guy is a hitter. He’s got a great swing and still managed 23 HR’s last year despite having an awful year. He had .931 OPS in parts of 3 triple A season’s and a .931 in 2009. He’s a great value for the 173^rd pick.

2B-Aaron Hill (168) -This guy is starting to worry me I like him except that his health is becoming a big factor. He’s a solid hitter but injuries and inconsistency are the big issues. If you have to grab him, have a plan B.

SS-Yunel Escobar (378)- He’s a career .289 hitter batting in the 2 hole in a good line up. If I missed out on the first three SS, id be comfortable skipping all the rest to snap him up really late. He’s going to play everyday and will produce nice counting stats at a thin position. His 2009 season is a good indicator of what he’s capable off.

3B/OF Bautista (48)- I love him, he was my sleeper before last season. If he falls to the late 3^rd/early 4^th he’s a steal. He plays with a swagger, he’s slowly starting to own this town and has the make up of a MVP player. Can he repeat? Who really knows? I can understand the skepticism but I’ve personally watched him play almost 300 games. I’ve witnessed the talent and I’m a believer. Watch this montage and ask yourself how many HR were win driven, flukes or luck. Take note of the opposite field jack for #54, a sign of things to come?

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=12404949&topic_id=8877962&c_id=tor

The most popular refrain on Bautista is that he will not hit 54 HR; but he could get 35.THIRTY-FIVE. That’s pretty good! You have to ignore the avg. when I guy has 100 BB’s. 35 HR hitting in the 3 slot of a potent line up equates to elevated run and RBI totals as well? Wouldn’t you love to get those numbers out of your third baseman? Isn’t 3b shallow this year? And what if 35 HR was the low end? And what if he does a David Ortiz impersonation and becomes a perennial MVP candidate? And why is he being taken 27 picks after Ryan Zimmerman?

I’m not advocating a 1^st or even 2^nd round pick on Bautista but if he slips in your draft, take a chance.

DH/3B/1B Encarnacion (363) late round flyer. He’s got power (21HR in 332AB) has multi position eligibility and is slated to play everyday. 30HR -90RBI is well within his reach I own him in a league already.

OF Rajai Davis- (281) -huge bargain. The Jays plan to run a lot this year. Davis has a secure spot at the top of line up and could put up career best numbers.

Juan Rivera (UD)- pass.

OF Travis Snider (293)- love him as well. He’s got major pop in the bat and will nab you a few steal as well. He got jerked around by Cito Gaston last year but looks ready to establish himself as a middle of the order hitter. In my draft full of Blue Jay fans some one will take him around 12/13^th round.

Prospects- Brett Lawrie. He’s smoking the ball and looks better than advertised. Should make the team but probably won’t. Start looking for him to be a call up in late May/early June

Morrow (127) Romero (141), Cecil (393)- Yes, yes and maybe. Morrow has a high ceiling and racks up the strikeouts. But I could see Morrow having a set back or two before he really breaks through. Romero is the smart pick. He’s strikeout numbers are trending up; he’s durable and looks to log over 200 IP again. I can see Morrow having a set back or two before he really breaks through. Cecil doesn’t have the strikeout numbers but he did lead the team in wins in 2010 and is a battler on the mound. If he were there in the last couple rounds I’d grab him.

Drabek (391)/Litsch (UD)-jury’s still out. Drabek has got great stuff but you have to expect some tough nights in the AL East. Litsch doesn’t have the pedigree but has proven to be a dependable guy. Both can be fill in starters at some point but I don’t think you need to draft either one.

Closers-I have no clue. It looks like Francisco is hurt; either way I could see three different guys getting saves this year. If you absolutely have to have one, then Rauch is your guy. He’s solid and I feel like he’ll eventually settle in as the closer.

There you have it, the annual state of the Jays address. I would love some feedback from other Jay fans to see if they share my sentiments.

A Fantasy Love Story

One of the most important draft day rules I have learned is to be aware of your host site rankings. Many of us will use ESPN or Yahoo as a fantasy league host. While its imperative to have your own rankings, the most important numbers to remember are the ones you’re going to stare at in the draft window. I’ve noticed that no matter how many different rankings you look at, the ones with the most pull are the ones beside a guys name when the draft window launches. Generally in the first two rounds, the highest ranked player available is taken and usually no one falls more than 3 or 4 picks. The gap increases as the rounds move on. Its important to have your own rankings and not be swayed by the chalk like most of your league will be. I conducted simultaneously mock drafts on the two big sites and noticed a few discrepancies.

One of the biggest was Carl Crawford. ESPN has ranked him No.3 with ADP of 4.2. Yahoo on the other hand has him ranked 12 with an ADP of 12.6. What this tells me is that most drafters are just towing the company line. He’s being taken before Longoria and Braun on ESPN but sometimes not till the 2^nd round on Yahoo. And the only discernable reason is that too many players wowed by the shiny little number beside his name.

Yahoo users picking late first round, take note. You may have no interest in Crawford but think about that ESPN no.3 ranking as the 1^st round moves on. Crawford is going to look pretty attractive at 10 and 11 and will look absolutely gorgeous at 2am, err in round 2 in yahoo formats.

I’m not saying Carl is the ugly girl at the end of the bar at last call, he’s a beauty wherever you get him, but keep in mind that in a leagues one cyber neighborhood away, people aren’t just picking him up early, they’re taking him to dinner. ESPN users need to very wary as he seems to be overrated while Yahoo blokes can sit back enjoy a few cocktails and grab him before the lights come on.

Speaking of cocktails, try to have a few. It’s a big day and there’s nothing wrong with celebrating. And if your state or country allows it, a little weed can sharpen your draft day focus. But know your limits. There’s a lot of Gonzalez’s and Ramirez’s out there it only takes a momentary lapse of concentration and you end up with Horacio instead of Hanley.

Here are some other notes and discrepancies I found while drafting:

Roy Halladay- rising in both formats and rarely falling out of the first round

Matt Holiday-ranked 14 ESPN/27 Yahoo

Dustin Pedroia-falling in both formats

Jimmy Rollins- going around 40 Yahoo and 60 ESPN

Jason Werth- mid 40’s ESPN/high 60’s Yahoo

Mike Stanton-ranked 69 ESPN/91 Yahoo

Pedro Alvarez—ESPN Rank 127/Yahoo Rank 95

Adam Lind-falling in both formats

Rankings aren’t an exact science. If Jason Werth is being taken 40^th in one league and 70^th in another, perhaps anything beyond 55 could be considered good value. Compile your own rankings and don’t be distracted by the draft window rankings.

Speaking of distractions, try to eliminate them. And by them I mean woman. Whether it’s your wife, girlfriend or mother, impress upon them how important it is that they don’t bother you. Taking the garbage out beforehand is a good idea. The last thing you need is nagging while you’re trying to shore up your rotation. I also like to keep a rolled up magazine close by in case one of them gets too close. Just remember how sacred fantasy is to men, don’t let the ladies in! They may feign some interest but don’t be sucked in, they’re only going to ruin it. A long time ago before Fantasy Baseball, men engaged in a different ritual; it was called James Bond. Ninety minutes of gold, packed with stunts, fighting and unapologetic sexual escapades with foreign woman. It was beautiful until someone broke rank and brought their wife. Today couples on date nights sit together and watch Bond movies and every time they do an angel loses a nut. Don’t let Fantasy go the way of 007; the draft board is for your eyes only.

A Man by any other Name

About a week ago I began to pen an article about Adrian Gonzalez being too high in the rankings. I’ve seen him going as high as 9 in mock drafts and usually no later than the late teens. And I have yet to see a single article offering a dissenting opinion. That’s when my contrarian ears perked up. As a rule if everyone loves something I tend to hate it. It usually occurs to me that once 100% of the public is behind a player, product or stock I own that there is nowhere for it to go but down. There is now no one left to be convinced so essentially value has been maxed out. So I set out on a mission to debunk his lofty ranking.

I knew all the reasons why ‘Dr. Gonzo’ (man needs a nickname-I'm trying a few out in this post) was to have a monster year. The home/road splits, the shift to a hitter’s park, the contract year, the great line up around him etc. It seemed too good to be true. So I dove into his stats looking for a chink in the amour. The results were surprising. His numbers are stunning. There’s remarkable consistency across the board. I could barely find any discrepancies. He’s batted ball rates barely waiver, his strikeout rate has dropped the last two years, he has the pedigree (former no.1 overall) and he doesn’t miss any games (avg.160GP/5 years).

Not satisfied with the pristine stats I’ve seen so far I dug deeper into these mythical home/road splits. Ugh…my case just got worse. Not only was ‘A-Gone’ affected by Petco but also notorious pitcher parks-Dodger Stadium and AT&T Park. He has a career SLG% of .364 in Dodger Stadium. He actually fared better against them at home. In total- 64% of his games are played in three of the kindest venues for hurlers.

I decided to re adjust some of his stats taking away those ballparks.

Here are his career SLG%

All games- .507

Road games- .568

Road games minus LA and SF -.595

I’m sure his lofty numbers in Colorado and Arizona might offset the LA/SF #’s but I didn’t think of that until after I did the math so the research is staying in there. Nonetheless I’m starting to become a believer. But I just can’t let this argument go yet. There’s a conversation I heard last year between two of the Padres announcers.

They had asked ‘Rocky’ about how difficult it was to hit in Petco. His answer was surprising. He said he stopped trying to hit HR’s when at home and therefore was able to use the park to take even strokes and correct any bad habits he developed while on the road. This might be nothing but its important to consider that while San Diego may not be friendly to hitters, it might be the most accommodating and friendly city in every other way.

You can crunch all the numbers you like. You can superimpose a Petco hit chart ontoFenway (like you see in this wonderful link below) and surmise that Petco robbed him of 15-20 extra base hits.

HYPERLINK "http://www.prosportsdaily.com/forums/showthread.php?t=559483" http://www.prosportsdaily.com/forums/showthread.php?t=559483

But how do you factor in playing half your games in your hometown surrounded by beautiful woman, surfing, Top Gun memorabilia and El Pollo Locos. Is there anything to this comment? Was Petco a glorified batting cage that enabled him to scorch the opposition on the road?

There’s no way of predicting how the ‘Chula Vista Chupacabra’ will respond to the pressure of hitting in Boston and New York, but if you just believe the numbers than he might be even better than people are predicting.

My initial argument was- why take .280-30-100 from ‘The Big Chimichanga’ in round 1 when you may get those numbers from Adam Lind in Round 10? But a deeper look at the numbers suggests that 30-100 might be the low end. Putting up 40-120 with a .600 SLG not only seems reasonable it seems almost automatic

While I still think top ten is a little high considering the depth of 1B, I can’t fault anyone for grabbing this potential MVP candidate. Well played ‘Senor Perilla’, you’ve convinced this skeptic.

So you think you could...

random rant i found on my iphone voice memo's.

i remember watching footloose as a kid and thinking why won't they let those kids dance. what a bunch of cranky bastards

now that I'm older, a little cranky and have a touch of bastard in me, I'm starting to think that those curmudgeons had a point

you can't foxtrot these days without stepping on a dead cat that hit a new dance show while it was being swung. (yeah i did make up that cliche)

the deepest cut of all must have been hearing Joe Buck do promos for Glee during the Super Bowl

the misery didn't stop there, i agreed to to leave the TV on Fox and sat through an episode of Glee. every memory of the past NFL season was instantly wiped from my memory

my already cold February testicles ascended further into my body

I'm not saying i want to live in a small town run by a tight ass Reverend but maybe Kevin Bacon loses that game of tractor chicken and then maybe i can watch a sporting event without seeing another dance show promo

be as fancy free as you want to be America but can't we get back to the good old days of TV

less dance
more Andy Sipowicz ass

Super Bowl Thoughts

Am I the only one not impressed with the national anthem? Two minutes and five seconds. Are you fucking kidding me? We all know you can sing. (You did win a contest)
Why is it incumbent on sports to keep the anthem alive? Why doesn't the song get played before the Oscar's or maybe before 24 or Lost?
Why does the NFL and the media have to dissect every play? This instant replay has gotten out of hand. David Caruso spends less time on murder cases then we do on some plays. I say abolish instant replay and accept that there will be human error. It hasn't affected baseball or soccer.
Having said that if you are going to review everything, then why not review Warner's final pass attempt/fumble.
And if it was a pass attempt like it was judged on a similar play in the first half, then where was the receiver and why was it not intentional grounding.