Don't believe the hype

Don’t Believe the Hype

Now that all my drafts are completed I like to re read some player predications so I can get a realistic idea of what to expect from each of my guys. This is mainly done to pat myself on the back but it’s also important to know each player inside and out. One of the articles that I love and hate to read is the list of expected busts, sleepers and breakthrough guys. I love reading analysis of why a guy should progress or regress but lately I’m finding some of the columns to be redundant and unimaginative.

Predictions, opinions and hunches are important but baseball is a numbers game and frankly I need more just an opinion. One of the major sports publications recently posted their fantasy preview. What I expected was pages of information and research. What I got was a bunch of hearsay, speculation, conjecture and some other words I heard on Law and Order. I’d hate to call any writer lazy (I’m actually lying down as I write this) but at least back up your argument with facts. If I wanted half-baked predictions I’d call Miss Cleo. When it comes to fantasy advice I need to see some evidence.

Here are five players I’ve seen listed in the bust section that I disagree with:

Jared Weaver and Dan Haren

The argument against Weaver is “never take a guy after a career year”. Haren’s case is similar, he is coming off a career high in innings and he was pretty shaky at the start of 2010. Lets start with Weaver

Can you really predict that a 6’7 former first round pick with a great pedigree will breakdown? Isn’t he doing what he was projected to do since he was a teenager. Why get indifferent when a guy delivers on a lifetime of promise.

Lets see if you notice a pattern in these series of numbers

Stat A-123, 161,176,211,224

Stat B-105, 115,152,174,233

Stat A is his yearly IP total and B is his K’s

He’s managed to increase both for 5 consecutive seasons. Impressive stuff.

Then there’s Dan Haren and his career high 235 IP. That was the 6^th consecutive year he’s logged at least 216 IP and only had a 6-inning increase from 2009. Do you really expect his shoulder to notice the extra couple innings? In those 6 seasons, only once was his ERA over 4 and his xFIP has never been above 3.83

I also found this fact courtesy of the Talented Mr. Roto.

Dan Haren’s ERA with

Mike Napoli-4.20.

Jeff Mathis-2.25.

Guess which guy Mike Scoiscia just jettisoned.

And the defensive improvements don’t end there. You have 12 combined gold gloves in OF plus the new centerfielder that Tori Hunter calls the “fastest white guy” I’ve ever seen.

To suggest a fallback from either guy is simply just guessing, all the evidence points to continued success from both.

Roy Halladay

Same theory applies with Halladay. He’s coming off a career high in innings and could be due for a regression. I couldn’t disagree more. This guy thrives on the work and seems to be getting better. His numbers are sparkling.

How about at least 220 innings 5 straight years and 7 of the last 9?

(The only years he failed were the dead arm year in 2004 and the fluke broken leg in 2005 when he was on his way to another CY Young)

How about 34 CG in 4 years?

How about 5 straight years of raising his SO/9 rate?

How about leading the league in SO/BB ratio three straight years?

How about a perfect game and a no hitter in the same season?

How about a 0.42 ERA this spring?

How about being one of the surest things in baseball?

How about watching him pitch?

It’s clear that he’s the best pitcher in the game and a future Hall of Famer. Even with a regression, the man would still be an all star. Lets stop hating and enjoy his talents.

Jose Bautista

I haven’t hid the fact that I love this guy. Let me rundown a few more numbers and Ill move on.

2009-10 HR after Sept 7

2010-hit .439 in spring training followed by 54 HR

2011-currently hitting .396 this spring with 9 doubles and 1.162 OPS

The man is in a zone, don’t ignore it, it may not last forever but while it’s happening you want to be along for the ride.

Carl Crawford

This is what I know about Crawford. In 2009 he was off to a slow start. I made a deal for him and he busted out in a big way. He stole 24 bases in the next 27 games. He solidified my SB category before May was over. His 162 game averages are 100-14-78-54-.296. He’s only 29, is a fitness freak and is playing in possibly the best line up in baseball. Case close!

Will all these guys be fantasy gold? I doubt it; injuries and flukes happen but there are no way of predicting them. All the recent history suggests that all five guys are safe bets this year.

I suppose if I’m going to second guess other writers, its only fair that I put my neck on the line. Please hold your laughter, spit or applause till the end of the column.

Sleeper

Allen Craig-Cardinals. This is a stretch because he isn’t guaranteed a spot but as soon as Lance Berkman goes on his yearly retreat to the DL, Craig will get his opportunity. He’s a career .308 hitter in the minors with a .888 OPS and has been hitting the well this spring.

Breakthrough

David Murphy-Rangers. It looks like he’s going to get full time AB’s and could hit in the heart of the Rangers line up when/if injuries fall upon Hamilton and Cruz. In the last 50 games of the 2010 season he hit .331 with 7 HR and 8 SB. A 300-20-20 year is within reach.

Bust

Shin Soo Choo-Indians. Lets compare two sets of stats.

Player A- 81 runs-22-HR-90 RBI-22 SB ADP: 27.84

Player B- 88 runs-20 HR- 78 RBI- 24 SB ADP: 127.9

You probably guessed player A is Choo, player B is Bobby Abreu. Not a lot of difference between two guys being taken in the 3^rd and 11^th rounds respectively. I do hate to knock Choo, he’s a good player but he may be the only good player on his team. He may be due for a regression just based upon being pitched around. This could be an ugly year for the Indians and I hate owning guys on teams going nowhere.

Enjoy the free predications while you can, next year this could be costing you $1.49 a minute on the psychic fantasy network.